Goto

Collaborating Authors

 category 5



Hurricane Melissa triggers flight delays at Florida airport as Category 5 storm sends dangerous winds toward US

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Netanyahu orders'powerful strikes in Gaza' after accusing Hamas of violating ceasefire terms following'faked' return of hostage remains LIZ JONES: Why I believe ruthless Kate's the driving force behind Andrew's eviction - and why no one now dares cross her Two teenage plane passengers are'stabbed with metal fork during mid-flight attack' Apple Martin releases music video after nepo baby's singing was slammed as'off-key drunken karaoke performance' War inside Biden's circle revealed as chief of staff urged him to quit following debate disaster Horror in Manhattan as young woman's naked body is found dumped on sidewalk Trump strikes FOUR'narco-terror' boats in one day as death toll skyrockets Hurricane tracker shows Melissa is now stronger than Katrina as'storm of the century' closes in on Jamaica: Live updates Chris Evans, 44, welcomes first child with wife Alba Baptista, 28, as baby's gender and name is revealed Ivanka Trump appointed to glitzy nonprofit board alongside TWO megastar singers who've previously attacked her father'She hasn't told the full story. This is typical her': How David Harbour is'looking after' Lily Allen's daughters despite'victim' singer publicly humiliating him... as insider tells DOLLY BUSBY what's REALLY going on Jennifer Lawrence admits she's planning on a boob job as she reveals all the plastic surgery she's had Brigitte Macron's daughter reveals cruel taunt the French first lady's GRANDCHILDREN have to face and describes the toll it has taken on her health Departures from Miami International Airport (MIA) are facing major delays as severe weather linked to hurricane activity sweeps through South Florida . According to the latest update issued at 11:28am EDT, departing flights are delayed an average of 45 minutes and are climbing. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) alert comes as Hurricane Melissa is just minutes away from making landfall on Jamaica as a Category 5, powerful enough to send pounding waves and dangerous winds north to Florida . Earlier today, meteorologists confirmed that Melissa was now more intense than Katrina, which caused an estimated $125bn worth of damage and killed 1,392 people when it struck New O rleans in 2005.


Hurricane Melissa Has Meteorologists Terrified

WIRED

The storm, which is set to make landfall in Jamaica Tuesday, has stunned meteorologists with its intensity and the speed at which it built. Meteorologists who have spent the past few days monitoring the rapid development of Hurricane Melissa in the Atlantic Ocean are sounding the alarm about the storm, which is set to make landfall in Jamaica today as a Category 5 hurricane. The sustained--and growing--intensity of the storm is remarkable, experts say, and has the makings of a historic hurricane. "When I look at the cloud pattern, I will tell you as a meteorologist and professional--and a person--it is beautiful, but it is terrifying," says Sean Sublette, a meteorologist based in Virginia. "I know what is underneath those clouds."


Storm Melissa to explode into Category 5 hurricane as models reveal its 'life-threatening' path to the US

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Billionaire Illinois Democrat governor caught in lie live on Fox News while trying to downplay Chicago's murder capital status Storm Melissa to explode into Category 5 hurricane as models reveal its'life-threatening' path to the US JAN MOIR: The Queen was blindly devoted to Prince Andrew... she raised a monster. The final hours of chess grandmaster Daniel Naroditsky - friends' desperate attempts to save him, warnings in final monologue and how he was haunted by sinister figure in hidden underworld. My wife won't get a job and I feel broken trying to provide for our family. Hold on, says DEAR CAROLINE... that's bad enough but your letter raises a MUCH bigger red flag Wild resurfaced Gilbert Arenas'snitching' claim goes viral in the wake of NBA mafia gambling scandal Inside the nondescript Virginia warehouse that wiped out the internet with one outage... and the neighbors who warn the next one is just a matter of time Fury as'insane' GM kills much-loved feature from upcoming cars as rival Ford doubles down I know all the secrets of the NBA legends' betting scandal. I think I've discovered Meghan's secret plan for if - or when - William strips away the Sussexes' royal titles: SHARON HUNT Disney fans left devastated after theme park dramatically'scales back' on its villains Doctor's $1M show of loyalty for murderer husband after he let adorable daughter, 2, die in roasting car as he watched adult videos Storm Melissa to explode into Category 5 hurricane as models reveal its'life-threatening' path to the US Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to strengthen into a life-threatening Category 5 hurricane that could swerve into the northeastern US in just days.



Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones?

Sun, Y. Qiang, Hassanzadeh, Pedram, Zand, Mohsen, Chattopadhyay, Ashesh, Weare, Jonathan, Abbot, Dorian S.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI weather/climate models. An important open question is whether AI models can extrapolate from weaker weather events present in the training set to stronger, unseen weather extremes. To test this, we train independent versions of the AI model FourCastNet on the 1979-2015 ERA5 dataset with all data, or with Category 3-5 tropical cyclones (TCs) removed, either globally or only over the North Atlantic or Western Pacific basin. We then test these versions of FourCastNet on 2018-2023 Category 5 TCs (gray swans). All versions yield similar accuracy for global weather, but the one trained without Category 3-5 TCs cannot accurately forecast Category 5 TCs, indicating that these models cannot extrapolate from weaker storms. The versions trained without Category 3-5 TCs in one basin show some skill forecasting Category 5 TCs in that basin, suggesting that FourCastNet can generalize across tropical basins. This is encouraging and surprising because regional information is implicitly encoded in inputs. No version satisfies gradient-wind balance, implying that enforcing such physical constraints may not improve generalizability to gray swans. Given that current state-of-the-art AI weather/climate models have similar learning strategies, we expect our findings to apply to other models and extreme events. Our work demonstrates that novel learning strategies are needed for AI weather/climate models to provide early warning or estimated statistics for the rarest, most impactful weather extremes.


Augmented CARDS: A machine learning approach to identifying triggers of climate change misinformation on Twitter

Rojas, Cristian, Algra-Maschio, Frank, Andrejevic, Mark, Coan, Travis, Cook, John, Li, Yuan-Fang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Misinformation about climate change poses a significant threat to societal well-being, prompting the urgent need for effective mitigation strategies. However, the rapid proliferation of online misinformation on social media platforms outpaces the ability of fact-checkers to debunk false claims. Automated detection of climate change misinformation offers a promising solution. In this study, we address this gap by developing a two-step hierarchical model, the Augmented CARDS model, specifically designed for detecting contrarian climate claims on Twitter. Furthermore, we apply the Augmented CARDS model to five million climate-themed tweets over a six-month period in 2022. We find that over half of contrarian climate claims on Twitter involve attacks on climate actors or conspiracy theories. Spikes in climate contrarianism coincide with one of four stimuli: political events, natural events, contrarian influencers, or convinced influencers. Implications for automated responses to climate misinformation are discussed.


Machine-Learning Model Improves Gas Lift Performance and Well Integrity

#artificialintelligence

The main objective of this work is to use machine-learning (ML) algorithms to develop a powerful model to predict well-integrity (WI) risk categories of gas-lifted wells. The model described in the complete paper can predict well-risk level and provide a unique method to convert associated failure risk of each element in the well envelope into tangible values. The predictive model, which predicts the risk status of wells and classifies their integrity level into five categories rather than three broad-range categories, as in qualitative risk classification. The five categories are Category 1, which is too risky Category 2, which is still too risky but less so than Category 1 Category 3, which is medium risk but can be elevated if additional barrier failures occur Category 4, which is low risk but features some impaired barriers Category 5, which is the lowest in risk The failure model, which identifies whether the well is considered to be in failure mode. In addition, the model can identify wells that require prompt mitigation.


Predicting Atlantic Hurricanes Using Machine Learning

#artificialintelligence

Every year, tropical hurricanes affect North and Central American wildlife and people. The ability to forecast hurricanes is essential in order to minimize the risks and vulnerabilities in North and Central America. Machine learning is a newly tool that has been applied to make predictions about different phenomena. We present an original framework utilizing Machine Learning with the purpose of developing models that give insights into the complex relationship between the land–atmosphere–ocean system and tropical hurricanes. We study the activity variations in each Atlantic hurricane category as tabulated and classified by NOAA from 1950 to 2021. By applying wavelet analysis, we find that category 2–4 hurricanes formed during the positive phase of the quasi-quinquennial oscillation. In addition, our wavelet analyses show that super Atlantic hurricanes of category 5 strength were formed only during the positive phase of the decadal oscillation. The patterns obtained for each Atlantic hurricane category, clustered historical hurricane records in high and null tropical hurricane activity seasons. Using the observational patterns obtained by wavelet analysis, we created a long-term probabilistic Bayesian Machine Learning forecast for each of the Atlantic hurricane categories. Our results imply that if all such natural activity patterns and the tendencies for Atlantic hurricanes continue and persist, the next groups of hurricanes over the Atlantic basin will begin between 2023 ± 1 and 2025 ± 1, 2023 ± 1 and 2025 ± 1, 2025 ± 1 and 2028 ± 1, 2026 ± 2 and 2031 ± 3, for hurricane strength categories 2 to 5, respectively. Our results further point out that in the case of the super hurricanes of the Atlantic of category 5, they develop in five geographic areas with hot deep waters that are rather very well defined: (I) the east coast of the United States, (II) the Northeast of Mexico, (III) the Caribbean Sea, (IV) the Central American coast, and (V) the north of the Greater Antilles.